What a long strange trip it’s been, this Road to the Kentucky Derby. Thinking back to last September, how many times have we changed our minds, or might there be a few who had an inkling from foaling season? I’ve had an fascinating but indecisive path myself however, I have finally come to some determinations. This is what I know about the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby and I would love to share it with you.
The KY Derby dates back to 1875 and has been held annually at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY. In the Sport of Kings, this race may be the most coveted stakes to win despite that the $2 million purse does not stand up to races like the Dubai World Cup or the Pegasus World Cup. I believe it is the rich history and the champions whom have competed, in this first race of the Triple Crown series, that gives so many the hope and desire to win the KY Derby. From my early youth, I can always remember taking time to focus on the Run for the Roses.
Full of tradition, the song is My Old Kentucky Home. The flower is the red rose. I just posted this week on the best pie to serve for the event. I advise you check out the easy and entertaining recipe. The drink is the unforgettable, Mint Julep.
On Saturday, May 5th, at 6:50 P.M. ET in the 12th race on a card of 14, the top 20 contenders will break from their posts to race in the next KY Derby. Who will capture the victory to be held in preservation for history and our hearts? We have the names and the data for this field of champions but the result is quite the mystery. First, let’s examine the facts!
Here is the 2018 KY Derby field by post-position/horse/jockey/trainer/owner/and morning-line odds:
- Firenze Fire/Paco Lopez/Jason Servis/r. Amore Stables/50-1
- Free Drop Billy/Robby Albarado/Dale Romans/Albaugh Family Stables/30-1
- Promises Fulfilled/Corey Lanerie/Dale Romans/Robert J. Baron/30-1
- Flameaway/Jose Lezcano/Mike Casse/John Oxley/30-1
- Audible/Javier Castellano/Todd Pletcher/China Horse Club/Head of Plains Partners, Starlight Racing and WinStar Farm/8-1
- Good Magic/Jose Ortiz/Chad Brown/eFive Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables/12-1
- Justify/Mike Smith/Bob Baffert/China Horse Club/Head of Plains Partners, Starlight Racing and WinStar Farm/3-1
- Lone Sailor/James Graham/Tom Amoss/G M B Racing/50-1
- Hofburg/Irad Ortiz, Jr./Bill Mott/Juddmonte Farms/20-1
- My Boy Jack/Kent Desormeaux/Keith Desormeaux/Don’t Tell my Wife Stables, Monomoy Stable and West Point Thoroughbreds/30-1
- Bolt d’Oro/Victor Espinoza/Nick Ruis/Ruis Racing/8-1
- Enticed/Junior Alvarado/Kiaran McLaughlin/Godolphin/30-1
- Bravazo/Luis Contreras/D. Wayne Lukas/Calumet Farm/50-1
- Mendelssohn/Ryan Moore/Aidan O’Brien/Michael B. Tabor/Susan Magnier and Derrick Smith/5-1
- Instilled Regard/Drayden Van Dyke/Jerry Hollendorfer/OXO Equine/50-1
- Magnum Moon/Luis Saez/Todd Pletcher/Robert and Lowana Low/6-1
- Solomini/Flavien Prat/Bob Baffert/Zayat Stables, Susan Magnier, Michael B. Tabor and Derrick Smith/30-1
- Vino Rosso/John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher/Repole Stable and St. Elias Stables/12-1
- Noble Indy/Florent Geroux/Todd Pletcher/WinStar Farm and Repole Stable/30-1
- Combatant/Ricardo Santana Jr./Steve Asmussen/Winchell Thoroughbreds and Willis Horton Racing/50-1
Let the discussion of the Derby commence, here are some facts sprinkled with my thoughts by horse (sire/dam):
Magnum Moon ( Malibu Moon/Dazzling Song) – He hit the top spot on the KY Derby leaderboard gathering 150 points in an undefeated career of just 4 races. Following a maiden at Gulfstream and an allowance at Tampa Bay he won both the G II Rebel and the G I Arkansas Derby each at Oaklawn. The stakes were both KY Derby preps awarding 50 and 100 points, respectively. His trainer, Pletcher, won the KY Derby last year and in 2010. In my opinion, 4 races are not enough to evaluate potential. He didn’t start racing until age 3 and there is much superstition to be said about this. It is called “the curse of Appolo“. Defined, no horse that waited until age 3 to start racing has won the KY Derby since 1882. That winner was Appolo. Also, I would prefer to pick a horse with some Churchill experience . His sire, Malibu Moon, retired after 2 maiden races due to injury. However, Malibu Moon has gone on to produce Eclipse Winners and a KY Derby winner. Magnum Moon’s dam was un-raced but she was sired by Unbridled’s Song whom I think highly of.
Good Magic ( Curlin/Glinda the Good) – This guy is an Eclipse Award winner. Following his win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile he was named Champion 2 Year Old Colt. Battling at 5 different tracks he has finished first twice, second twice and third once. Always finishing in the money he has done well in 4 graded stakes and KY Derby prep races and fetched points in all 4. His jockey, Ortiz, has yet to win a KY Derby but he is outstanding and I’d be happy to see him do it. His trainer has not won the KY Derby yet either. Sire, Curlin, holds 4 Eclipse Awards, is a Hall of Fame horse and though he finished 3rd in the KY Derby, he was 1st in the Preakness and 2nd in the Belmont. That is a lot of Triple Crown power. His dam’s sire, Hard Spun, had tons of Triple Crown glory too. 2nd in the KY Derby, 3rd in the Preakness. Good Magic has no Churchill experience but he did win at Keeneland.
Audible ( Into Mischief/Blue Devil Bel) – At 3 tracks in 5 races this colt is on a 4 race winning streak. He won the Holy Bull and the Florida Derby to get his KY Derby berth. This New York bred has spent his time between 2 home tracks and Gulfstream. His sire, Into Mischief, had some graded stakes success before moving on to prove a stellar sire of stakes winners. His dam sire, Gilded Time, had success in BC races. Audible shares his winning trainer, Pletcher.
Noble Indy (Take Charge Indy/Noble Maz)- Another 4 race horse, he got points winning the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby. He has a 3 in 4 record for wins obtained at Gulfstream and Fair Grounds. His sire was injured in the KY Derby but he recovered and did very well in multiple graded stakes. Take Charge Indy currently stands in Korea but there is opportunity for WinStar to bring him back to KY which I would appreciate. Storm Boot, the dam sire of Noble Indy has since been euthanized but not before 46 stakes winners were produced.
Vino Rosso (Curlin/Mythical Bride) – Racing at both Aqueduct and Tampa Bay, 3 wins in 5 starts would sound pretty good if more had occurred this year. The KY Derby points were obtained in all 3 of his stakes races, the Sam F. Davis, Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial. He finished on top in his final start, the G II Wood. Another Pletcher horse, Vino Rosso, has the Velazquez/Pletcher combo that Always Dreaming won with last year. Velazquez won in 2011 as well.
Bolt d’Oro (Madaglia d’Oro/Globe Trot) – I have to love this horse a lot as a special friend and fellow blogger is all about this horse for the win. This St. Patrick’s Day foaled colt has a stellar pedigree, including A.P. Indy on his maternal side. Bolt d’Oro is KY bred but all 6 of his races were in California. He won his first 3 entries at Del Mar and Santa Anita. His first race was a maiden but his last 5 were all graded stakes. In Grade 1 races he has 2 wins, one place and 1 show. This colt is a class act! His jockey, Espinoza, has won the KY Derby 3 times! War Emblem, California Chrome and American Pharoah all had Espinoza for a rider.
Enticed (Medaglia d’ Oro/It’s Tricky) – This KY bred colt shares the same sire as Bolt d’Oro and also carries A. P. Indy through Mineshaft on his maternal side. This is an example of how good breeding leads to quality results. Enticed won his very first race as he has done in 3 of 6 starts. His second win was right at Churchill in the G II KY Jockey Club Stakes giving him some home court advantage. However, he has shipped well to both Florida and New York showing versatility.
Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy/Leslie’s Lady) – My regular readers know I have a thing for Scat Daddy’s fillies. I could get used to loving his colts too. Mendelssohn, a KY bred, went down two paths on the Road to the KY Derby and won races on each. He picked up points on the European road in the Patton and the American road in the BC Juvenile and the UAE Derby (on the American road despite taking place in Dubai). With those 3 wins he was working a lot of angles to make it to Churchill on the 5th of May. In all he has won 4 of 7 starts.
Justify (Scat Daddy/Stage Magic) – He shares his sire with Mendelssohn. Folks go crazy for this KY bred horse and have an unwavering belief in his ability to win everything before almost anyone had actually seen him run. I find it odd but very compelling. He didn’t race at 2 years, he has only raced 3 times total and all at Santa Anita. Yet, as they said he would, he won all 3, a maiden, an allowance and then lo and behold the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby! I haven’t really figured out, did his fans will him to do it or could they see something in the conformation that I don’t have the skill to pick up on? Whatever it is, there are a whole lot of people who say he’s the winner. His trainer Baffert has had 4 KY Derby winners and his jockey, Smith, rode Giacomo to a KY Derby victory.
Flameaway ( Scat Daddy/Vulcan Rose) – Yep, another Scat Daddy colt! This one was bred in Ontario and his dam sire was 2000’s KY Derby winner, Fusaichi Pegasus. I am impressed by the number of Flameaway’s 9 starts, at 7 tracks in 2 countries and 3 states that include 5 wins. I also like that he has raced at Churchill.
Solomini (Curlin/Surf Song) – 1/2 brother to Good Magic and Vino Rosso, through their sire, he shares their running style, all stalkers, but not their win percentages. Solomini has finished second or third in all 5 of his grades stakes but the only race he ever won was his first race, a maiden. This KY bred colt raced 3 CA tracks before shipping out to Oaklawn for his last 2 races.
Bravazo (Awesome Again/Tiz O’ Gold) – I surprised myself when I didn’t choose this one as my personal favorite. He is trained by The Coach, D. Wayne Lukas. Churchill is the home track for Lukas who has won the KY Derby 4 times already. Furthermore, Bravazo is owned by Calumet Farm, they hold the most KY Derby wins at 8! Even his jockey, Stevens, has won 3 KY Derbys. This colt is already a winner at Churchill. 3 of his 8 starts were there. His sire won the BC Classic at Churchill. I may be kicking myself because this colt has the best group of connections.
My Boy Jack ( Creative Cause/Gold N Shaft) – In 10 starts, this colt got KY Derby points in 4 different stakes at 4 different tracks. This KY bred got his first 7 starts in CA, since then, he’s been a shipper. I was pleased to watch him win the G III Lexington Stakes live in his last time out. His rider, Desormeaux has won the KY Derby 3 times prior.
Promises Fulfilled (Shackleford/Marquee Delivery)- With only 5 career starts I can still get pretty excited for this one though I don’t think he will win this race. He has won 3 starts including the G II Fountain of Youth Stakes. At Churchill he has won once and shown once as well. It was his last start, the Florida Derby loss that made me wonder if he has peaked and troughed so soon? Perhaps, it just wasn’t his day. His sire, Shackleford has tasted victory at the Triple Brown level. He won the Preakness Stakes.
Free Drop Billy (Union Rags/Trensa) – Finally, this is my pick! I’m having some fun defending that position too. “Billy” won his very first race at Churchill. 4 months later he won the G I Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and I think that was the moment that I was sold on him, although I didn’t recognize it until this past week. I like his style, he is not a quitter. “Billy” has beaten a lot of the other contenders in this race, Bravazo, Lone Sailor, Firenze Fire, and Enticed. He is the Rodney Dangerfield of racing right now. His trainer called him “underestimated”. I’m not a speed figure fan so I don’t worry too much over those threats. “Billy” is still a fast horse and he has hit the board for 7 of 8 starts. He finished in the top 3 in 6 of 7 grades stakes. His trainer says he is a hard worker. Be like “Billy”!
Lone Sailor (Majestic Warrior/Ambitious) – With only 1 win in 8 starts it is hard to see this KY bred as a KY Derby winner. He picked up points in 2 of his 4 KY Derby preps. It is worth noting that he was only off by a neck to win his last start, the Louisiana Derby which could mean he is ready to surprise me. If he is heating up this closer could be a threat!
Hofburg (Tapit/Soothing Touch) – First, I want to make it clear that I am quite happy to see both Ortiz brothers competing in this KY Derby. They are both such good jockeys I want them, either of them, to get their first KY Derby win. This is Irad’s third trial and Jose’s fourth. The time will come. As for the horse, Hofburg is another with only 3 starts, and unlike Justify, he only won once. His last time out he was 2nd in the Florida Derby which is important to know. This KY bred has raced at Saratoga and Gulfstream. Sired by the near white in appearance Tapit, Hofburg is bay, this is a field of no greys.
Firenze Fire (Poseidon’s Warrior/My Every Wish) – This Florida bred colt has raced 9 times. He spent all his time up North (Monmouth, Saratoga, Belmont, Aqueduct) except for one bad trip at Del Mar. He has won 2 graded stakes with 4 wins overall. It is going to be a tough trip for this closer to break from post 1. His pedigree and his connections do not add to my expectations. A KY Derby win would be new for them all.
Combatant (Scat Daddy/Border Dispute) – Yes, I’ll have another Scat Daddy colt! Combatant got his start at Churchill and broke his maiden there his next time out, thus he knows a bit about the track. He has not won since, racing once at Remington and then in 4 KY Derby prep races at Oaklawn. I love Asmussens’ smile when he wins so that would be a perk if Combatant could pull it off.
Instilled Regard (Arch/Enhancing) – This colt enters the race with the least amount of prep points. A mere 29 points compared to top of the leaderboard, Magnum Moon with 150. Instilled Regard has race 5 times in CA and 2 times at Fair Grounds. In his 4 KY prep races he finished 1st once, 2nd once and 4th twice. His connections have yet to win the KY Derby. Instilled Regard drew post 15. This was the post American Pharoah won from in 2015.
Have a great weekend watching the KY Oaks and KY Derby, even the undercards have plentiful select racing. NBC Sports Network will televise the KY Derby Undercard on 5/5 from 12 to 2:30 P.M. ET and then switch to NBC from 2:30 to 7:30 P.M. ET for live racing coverage of the KY Derby. I have really enjoyed the multi faceted and unpredictable road to this 144th KY Derby. The outcome has us waiting in suspense.
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Good luck to all, safe rides for all horses and jockeys. I think I am going to stick with Justify. Safe trips to all and may the best horse win. God bless all of them.